NFL Week 1 survivor pool picks, strategy: Play it safe with Denver or get weird with the Rams or Raiders?

Survivor, eliminator, last man standing. Whatever you call it, it’s back, along with the start of the NFL season. Adam Gretz and Renee Miller are also back to give advice on how to be the sole survivor in your pools.

If you’re new to survivor pools, the simplicity of them is part of the reason for their popularity. Pick one team each week, and if it wins, you survive to the next week. If it doesn’t win, you’re out. If your team does win, you can’t pick that team again.

Each week, Renee and Adam will provide their picks, strategies and explain their reasoning. Both have written about general strategies for survivor pools, with Adam focusing on the rules and how you can apply game theory to win and Renee writing about the psychology of competing against a group in this format.

Week 1 strategy

Renee: Welcome back to NFL survivor pools! It’s the game I love to love and love to hate, depending on how I do. Even more so than in fantasy football, we take great pride in our picks when they’re on, and blame everyone but ourselves when they’re wrong. That’s classic self-serving bias. Survivor pools are also subject to what’s known as outcome bias, judging decisions not by their quality at the time they were made, but by the end result. Coming from a neuroscience background, that’s definitely part of the appeal of analyzing survivor picks for me. I strive to use the best data I can find to arrive at, and justify, every pick I’ll make this season. They won’t all be right, but the process is tried and true.

Let’s get to Week 1! Strategy depends on many things, including pool size, and we’ll try to make sure our picks take that into consideration by giving out both chalk and contrarian options we like each week. Small pools can take fewer risks, while to make it to the end in a huge pool, you need to differentiate yourself. Does that have to happen in Week 1? I say no. I divide the season into thirds, so my goal in the first few weeks is to make it to the second third, and then eventually to the final third of the season. So I won’t make my first week’s picks based on a Week 15 matchup. When I talk about future value this week, I’m looking out to about Week 6.

I also won’t go off the rails in Week 1. I’m a big believer in past performance and rankings, etc., but I know that we don’t know everything there is to know going into Week 1. Most NFL teams retool significantly in the offseason, and they don’t necessarily show off their improvements, especially on defense, in the public preseason. So what we know from last year is probably more like 50 percent right for this year in terms of matchup strength. This is all to say that getting that first win under our belts is worth using a popular pick in Week 1.

Adam: There is a delicate balance to picking your teams in the first week of the season, because, as Renee said, you’re just trying to get to Week 2. But you’re also not looking to burn a good team that you might want in a few weeks when the size of your league has been cut down because they haven’t been reading The Athletic’s survivor column.

Last year’s leagues were absolutely gutted in the opening week because Cincinnati over New England was such a popular pick, and then the Bengals’ annual slow start kicked in and everything changed.

I like Renee’s strategy of dividing the season into thirds, especially when it comes to trying to determine future value. I just have a tendency to look a little further ahead to help me determine when to choose a certain team.

Most leagues, especially larger leagues, are going to last a bit, so if I can avoid using Philadelphia, Kansas City, Buffalo or Baltimore in the first half of the season, I am going to do it.

In Week 1, I am looking for a team that has a strong chance of winning, but is also a team I am not going to sweat not having later in the year.

Sometimes I am even picking against certain teams as much as I am picking for a team. I went the first two or three weeks of last season just picking teams that were playing the Carolina Panthers. It worked out because it ended up being New Orleans and the Los Angeles Chargers, two teams I never wanted to think about again later in the season.

There are a couple of good options along those lines in Week 1 this season.

Week 1 chalk picks

The table below lists the five most popular survivor picks for Week 1 from Yahoo Fantasy, with the percentage of pick distribution for each of those teams as well as the point spread, from BetMGM, for each of their games as of Sept. 2.

Adam: Denver Broncos over Tennessee Titans

I am not completely on board with the preseason hype surrounding the Denver Broncos, but I do think this is still a pretty good team. It was a playoff team a year ago with a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix) and an outstanding defense, and it should be in the mix again this season. Is it a Super Bowl team? Is Nix a Super Bowl quarterback? I don’t know. Maybe?

What I do know is I like their chances of beating Tennessee in Week 1, and I don’t know if it’s a team I feel the need to save for later in the season. I am fine using them early, especially in a matchup like this.

The Titans were the worst team in the NFL a year ago, are opening on the road in Denver (always a brutal place to play as a visitor for multiple reasons) and are starting a rookie quarterback in his NFL debut without much of a supporting cast around him.

I like Cam Ward. He has a ton of talent and looked impressive in the preseason. He has the potential to have an excellent career. This is just a brutal matchup for him to open his career with having to go on the road, with the altitude, without many playmakers around him and against a top-tier defense.

I am extraordinarily confident in this pick. Take the Broncos.

Renee: Cincinnati Bengals to win at Cleveland Browns

I rarely start the season with a road team in a divisional matchup, but I can’t get away from this particular mismatch. The Bengals have won four of the last six matchups with Cleveland, including the last three. The offensive talent is overwhelmingly on Cincinnati’s side of the ball.

While the Bengals ranked sixth in scoring last season with 27.8 points per game, Cleveland was dead last at 15.2. The Browns going back to Joe Flacco at quarterback doesn’t exactly scream success to me, while Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are a well-oiled scoring machine. Burrow led the league in passing touchdowns with 43.

Per FanDuel Sportsbook, 85 percent of the money is coming in on Cincinnati this week, with 72 percent of bettors taking the Bengals to cover the spread. They’ll be a popular survivor pick this week for good reason. The Bengals will be favored next week against a Jacksonville team that could be sneaky dangerous (I know we thought so last year, too, but it’s still true), but then have four competitive games in which they’re projected to be the underdog (Minnesota, Denver, Detroit, Green Bay). That is to say that they’re in a very strong position this week, and won’t be again until Weeks 7-9. Not to jinx the season, but anything could happen by then.

Week 1 contrarian picks

Renee: LA Rams over Houston Texans

If, for whatever reason, you feel like you need a flashy hot start to your survivor pool season, I don’t hate the Rams. The concerns about Matthew Stafford’s back seem to have died down a bit. As he says, he’s 37 years old and 17 years in the league: everything hurts! Bringing in Davante Adams to catch passes, along with young star Puka Nacua, keeps this offense competitive with anyone in the league. LA also has a solid run game behind Kyren Williams and an above-average defense. The Rams embody the all-around stability I want to see in a pool pick and are playing a non-divisional opponent at home.

From a matchup standpoint, the Rams defense was somewhat suspect against the run last year, allowing the fifth-most (136.9) rushing yards per game. However, Houston has a lot of questions at RB heading into Week 1. Joe Mixon is out at least four games and may not play this year. Nick Chubb has played 10 games in the last two years. Dameon Pierce has seen his carries decrease each year he’s been in the league.

That leaves rookie Woody Marks. Marks is generating some preseason excitement, but it’s hard to imagine he comes out with enough opportunity to make a dent in his first NFL game.

Speaking of questions, there are plenty around C.J. Stroud and the pass offense as well. This unit underperformed expectations last year, ranking 24th in completion percentage and 20th in passing yards per game. Only the NY Giants and New England threw fewer touchdowns than Houston last season. I think there are safer picks, but the Rams are probably a reasonable contrarian option to start the season.

Adam: Las Vegas Raiders to win at New England Patriots

I want to emphasize that the Raiders would not be my first pick. Or my second pick. Or even my third pick this week. But as a contrarian pick that goes against the grain? If you’re really looking to save all of the big teams for future weeks, I think they’ve got a chance here. A really good chance.

I know the Patriots added some players this offseason, and I know they are high on Drake Maye, but I’m not ready to buy them as anything more than a mid-level team at best.

Granted, the Raiders are not anything more than that at this point either, and this game is probably a toss-up, but as of this writing, I have more faith in Geno Smith than I have in Drake Maye to win one game. Pete Carroll is going to turn this game into an absolute slop-fest and try to have Ashton Jeanty shine against a Patriots defense that allowed over 130 rushing yards per game a year ago.

Along with having the better quarterback, the Raiders also have arguably the best offensive player (Brock Bowers) and defensive player (Maxx Crosby) that will be on the field on Sunday. I think that is a game the Raiders win.

(Photo of Bo Nix: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)